User manual BUSINESS OBJECTS PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS 3.1 FOR WINDOWS

[. . . ] BusinessObjects Predictive Analysis User Guide BusinessObjects Predictive Analysis 3. 1 Windows Copyright © 2008 Business Objects, an SAP company. Business Objects owns the following U. S. patents, which may cover products that are offered and licensed by Business Objects: 5, 295, 243; 5, 339, 390; 5, 555, 403; 5, 590, 250; 5, 619, 632; 5, 632, 009; 5, 857, 205; 5, 880, 742; 5, 883, 635; 6, 085, 202; 6, 108, 698; 6, 247, 008; 6, 289, 352; 6, 300, 957; 6, 377, 259; 6, 490, 593; 6, 578, 027; 6, 581, 068; 6, 628, 312; 6, 654, 761; 6, 768, 986; 6, 772, 409; 6, 831, 668; 6, 882, 998; 6, 892, 189; 6, 901, 555; 7, 089, 238; 7, 107, 266; 7, 139, 766; 7, 178, 099; 7, 181, 435; 7, 181, 440; 7, 194, 465; 7, 222, 130; 7, 299, 419; 7, 320, 122 and 7, 356, 779. 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Note: You can test all combinations of detrending method and cyclicality encoding, and select the best combination based on the following criteria: · Eliminate models where Corr (predicted, actual) is not statistically significant · Select the model with smallest root mean squared error: RMSE = sqrt(sum((forecasti-actuali)2)/N) Keep in mind · · You need at least 18 periods to have a correct projection. Metric slices cannot be used with this analytic. Related Topics · What is a metric forecaster detrended mean?on page 103 Configuring the Metric Forecaster analytic You can use a model-based metric for this analytic. Model-based metrics are created in Predictive Analysis. For more information see the Predictive Analysis documentation. In the analytic edit panel, expand Forecast parameter and click Select Metric. To be able to select a different model-based metric each time the analytic is refreshed, activate Add a Prompt and type prompt text you want to appear in the prompt window. BusinessObjects Predictive Analysis User Guide 55 6 Predictive analytics Metric Forecaster analytic based on metrics The prompt always defaults to the last model-based metric selected using the prompt. Expand Display Options and type a title for the analytic. To set a hyperlink to a Central Management Server analytic from the chart legend, activate Use Legend as hyperlink to go to and click Browse to locate the analytic. The hyperlink text appears in the text box in an openAnalytic text string. For information on openAnalytic, see the Linking from goal, universe query and metric-based analytics section in the documentation. Select an error band width: · Select Liberal to have the error band computed as +1. 96 times L2 to -1. 96 times L2. · Select Conservative to have the error band computed as +3 L2 to -3 L2 where L2 is root mean squared error. The error band displays the margin of error allowed. Select a sampling data set to divide a population into specific parts to use in the model generation process. · Select Complete to use three quarters of the data for estimation and one quarter of the data for validation. · Select Optimized to use all of the data for estimation and the last two thirds of the data for validation. The default mode, "Complete", works better for smaller data sets and metrics with trends. "Optimized" mode works better for metric with cycles. Linking from goal, universe query and metric-based analytics Linking to multiple documents from an analytic based on a goal, metric or universe query You can create links to multiple documents from a goal or metric-based analytic. This is particularly useful for analytic drill down. How you access the options for linking analytics to other documents, depends on whether you are creating a new analytic or editing an existing analytic. · If you are creating an analytic, do one of the following in InfoView: 56 BusinessObjects Predictive Analysis User Guide Predictive analytics Metric Forecaster analytic based on metrics 6 · · · Go to Open > Dashboard Builder > Create New Analytic. [. . . ] A metric is defined using objects in the universe, and is usually made up of the following: · a measure · a filter · a date restriction You can use metrics to track actual performance and compare it to a goal, or use it to project a trend. Metrics can also be created on a set universe. Set metrics allow you to track a measure over time for a particular subject within a set. What is a population? In Dashboard and Analytics analyses, a population is a named query that defines a group of interest. BusinessObjects Predictive Analysis User Guide 123 7 Predictive Analysis Terms What is a predictive model? What is a predictive model? A predictive model is a user-specified configuration of the predictive calculation engine. To set up a predictive model, the user selects influencers, goals, and the population within which relationships are quantified. Related Topics · What is a population? [. . . ]